Gallup Daily: Presidential Race Narrows Slightly

Obama leads by two to seven points among likely voters

October 28, 2008

I know the difference. The traditional one doesn't account for the dynamics of the current electorate. It assumes African-American turnout will be at 2004 levels, that the under-30 vote will be at 2004 levels,  that the millions of newly registered voters will vote at the same levels as an "average first time voter", and that Democratic voter turnout will be at "normal" levels. And most of all, it assumes that McCain's GOTV will operate at the same level as Bush 2004 (fat chance). It basically assumes that this is the last election. It may turn out that it is the case, but I wouldn't bet anything on it. Really this whole discussion is moot, what matters are the state-level polls and Obama has a near-insurmountable lead at this point. The real question is whether this thing is a massive blowout or not. If things hold steady for the next few days it will be, and if anything the numbers look like they are strengthening for Obama. Early returns and voter demographics are showing that the models which tried to account for the changes in the electorate didn't go far enough. Yes, that may not turn out to be the case, but I guarantee you there isn't a Republican strategist in the country who would tell you otherwise if you waterboarded them.

Interesting fact: Obama's GOTV operation in Florida ran out of vans available to rent in the state (yes, they rented every single available van in the entire state of Florida). They've been renting vans in surrounding states and moving them into place for the past week or two. They're locked and loaded and ready to go all out. Meanwhile, McCain is having to pull money out of his GOTV operations and shift it into robocalls to defend his homestate...